Political money is about to lean on your ad costs
If you run ads for your business in the U.S., I predict your cost per lead will creep up between now and Election Day on November 3, and it will have nothing to do with anything you did. The 2026 midterms are shaping up to be the most expensive political advertising cycle in American history, bigger than the last presidential race. That money competes in the same ad auctions you do.
AdImpact, a firm that tracks political ad spending, projects $11.6 billion in total political advertising for the 2026 midterm cycle. For context, the 2022 midterms drew $8.9 billion and the 2024 presidential race drew $11.2 billion. No previous off-year contest has come close to this figure. This one beats the presidential cycle by roughly $400 million.
Where the money lands
Broadcast TV still takes the biggest slice at $5.6 billion. Connected television, meaning ads inside streaming apps on your TV, takes $2.6 billion. Digital takes $1.6 billion and cable $1.4 billion. Political podcast ad spend is already up 42 percent year over year.
Cable was the second screen of political buying back in 2022. Streaming has now passed it. Political money is moving into the same digital channels where service businesses advertise, which is why this matters even if you never watch a political ad on TV.
Why your Meta and Google accounts will feel it
The mechanics are simple. Meta, the company behind Facebook and Instagram, sells ads through an auction, and so does Google. More bidders means higher prices for everyone. When billions in political budget pours in during the final weeks before an election, every other advertiser pays more for the same eyeballs. Meta's average ad price was already rising before this cycle started.
My take is that any business advertising on social in the U.S. is going to feel at least a little of this, whether or not you follow politics. The auction does not care. Clinics, contractors, dental practices, law firms, you all share inventory with campaigns chasing voters in your market.
The pressure will be heaviest where the races are. Senate contests account for $3.4 billion of the projected spending, and governors' races another $2.4 billion. If you operate in a state with a tight race, expect a sharper squeeze.
Weather the storm, do not blow up the account
In my experience from managing Google and Meta campaigns through several election cycles over the past decade, the worst move an owner can make right now is panic. A few weeks of higher costs is a weather event, and the answer to a weather event is preparation.
The way I see it, this period comes down to three things. Weather the storm. Focus on ROAS, meaning return on ad spend, the revenue you get back for every dollar you put in. And keep your optimizations tight: pause the loose audiences, cut the campaigns that were only breaking even, and protect the ones that reliably bring in work.
My bet is the owners who hold steady with tighter accounts will come out of November in better shape than the ones who shut everything off. Pausing kills your momentum and your account data, and you pay for that long after the campaign ads disappear. Political budgets vanish almost overnight once the election passes, and you want your campaigns live and calibrated when that relief arrives.
I expect plenty of your competitors to do the opposite. Some will overspend chasing the same results at higher prices, and some will go dark entirely. Both of those mistakes create room for the businesses that stay disciplined.
How to prepare your business
1. Audit your campaigns this week and cut anything that is not clearly profitable.
2. Track leads through to actual revenue so you judge campaigns on return, not clicks.
3. Budget for higher costs per lead through November 3 instead of reacting to them.
If you want a second set of eyes on your account before the political spending peaks, reach out and we will take a look.
